Posted by Volunteer Staff
on June 18th, 2012
City Council member Tulsi Gabbard has overcome an early 45-point deficit to pull into a dead heat with the former Honolulu mayor two months before the Democratic primary likely to determine Hawaii's new representative in Congress...
When he first announced his candidacy last August, Hannemann touted a 66-to-11 edge over Gabbard. In early February, he released new internal polling numbers showing a 57 percent to 15 percent lead. Both of his surveys were conducted by QMark Research...
More importantly, an independent poll conducted by Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now in late January and early February found Hannemann with 65 percent support versus 20 percent for Gabbard...
Those three surveys pointed to a blowout victory for Hannemann and showed Gabbard would struggle with name recognition statewide. Then just 30 years old (she turned 31 in April) and a quiet first-term member of the council, Gabbard was little-known on Oahu and all but a completely unknown quantity among the neighbor island voters that make up about 60 percent of the 2nd Congressional District....
The Star-Advertiser (subscription required) explained that 23 percent of those surveyed didn't know enough about Gabbard to form an opinion about her, and another 40 percent had never even heard of her. That was actually an improvement from the internal Hannemann poll from six months earlier, when 51 percent of voters said they didn't know who Gabbard was...
Half of voters surveyed said they made up their minds in the last month. A full quarter made their decisions in the two weeks before the second poll was conducted June 13 and June 14.
Gabbard clearly has the momentum.
Of those who picked a candidate in the two weeks leading up to the survey, Gabbard leads Hannemann 42 percent to 26 percent. Of those who chose in the two weeks before that, the split was 44-32 percent in Gabbard's favor. Both represent a big change from the voters who settled on a candidate more than a month ago; they went for Hannemann, 49-31 percent.
It's worth noting that the surveys were conducted during and after Hannemann skipped a debate on Maui on June 5. During the televised forum, Gabbard reminded viewers of Hannemann's absence — and the empty chair placed on stage in his stead.
The above is excerpted from Honolulu Civil Beat - read the full article here.